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Updated: Sep 28, 2025
A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
PHREND®-A Real-World Data-Driven Tool Supporting Clinical Decisions to Optimize Treatment in Relapsing-Remitting
Stefan Braune1, Elisabeth Stuehler2, Yanic Heer2
1NeuroTransData, Neuburg an der Donau, Germany.
Background:
With increasing availability of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), treatment decisions in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) have become complex. Data-driven algorithms based on real-world outcomes may help clinicians optimize control of disease activity in routine praxis.
Objectives:
We previously introduced the PHREND® (Predictive-Healthcare-with-Real-World-Evidence-for-Neurological-Disorders) algorithm based on data from 2018 and now follow up on its robustness and utility to predict freedom of relapse and 3-months confirmed disability progression (3mCDP) during 1.5 years of clinical practice.
Methods:
The impact of quarterly data updates on model robustness was investigated based on the model's C-index and credible intervals for coefficients. Model predictions were compared with results from randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Clinical relevance was evaluated by comparing outcomes of patients for whom model recommendations were followed with those choosing other treatments.
Results:
Model robustness improved with the addition of 1.5 years of data. Comparison with RCTs revealed differences <10% of the model-based predictions in almost all trials. Treatment with the highest-ranked (by PHREND®) or the first-or-second-highest ranked DMT led to significantly fewer relapses (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively) and 3mCDP events (p = 0.007 and p = 0.035, respectively) compared to non-recommended DMTs.
Conclusion:
These results further support usefulness of PHREND® in a shared treatment-decision process between physicians and patients.
