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Updating global urbanization projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Shiyin Chen1, Qingxu Huang2,3, Raya Muttarak4,5,6
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Scientific Data
|April 1, 2022
Summary
This study projects global urbanization trends from 2015 to 2100 using updated data and models. These urbanization projections are crucial for understanding future socioeconomic development and climate change impacts.
Area of Science:
- Socioeconomic studies
- Climate change research
- Demographic analysis
Background:
- Urbanization is a key indicator of socioeconomic development.
- Projecting urbanization dynamics is essential for global change studies.
- Existing projections require updates for policy planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To update global urbanization projections from 2015 to 2100.
- To provide urbanization data under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
- To analyze uncertainties in future urbanization trends.
Main Methods:
- Utilized logistic fitting model and iteratively identified reference countries.
- Incorporated historical urbanization data from World Urbanization Prospects.
- Generated year-by-year projections using World Bank data for validation.
Main Results:
- Provided updated urbanization projections for 204 countries and areas (2015-2100).
- Offered year-by-year projections for 188 countries (2010-2100) based on World Bank data.
- Validated projections using historical World Bank data (2010-2018).
Conclusions:
- The updated urbanization dataset is vital for assessing future socioeconomic development.
- Projections inform understanding of urbanization's implications for climate change.
- The data supports effective policy planning for global socioeconomic and climate challenges.
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