Low probability of disease cure in advanced ovarian carcinomas before the PARP inhibitor era

In ovarian carcinomas, the likelihood of disease cure following first-line medical-surgical treatment has been poorly addressed. The objective was to: (a) assess the likelihood of long-term disease-free (LDF) > 5 years; and (b) evaluate the impact of the tumour primary chemosensitivity (assessed with the modelled CA-125 KELIM) with respect to disease stage, and completeness of debulking surgery.

Three Phase III trial datasets (AGO-OVAR 9; AGO-OVAR 7; ICON-7) were retrospectively investigated in an "adjuvant dataset", whilst the Netherlands Cancer Registry was used in a "neoadjuvant dataset". The prognostic values of KELIM, disease stage and surgery outcomes regarding the likelihood of LDF were assessed using univariate/multivariate analyses.

Of 2029 patients in the "adjuvant dataset", 82 (4.0%) experienced LDF (Stage I-II: 25.9%; III: 2.1%; IV: 0.5%). Multivariate analyses identified disease stage and KELIM (OR = 4.24) as independent prognostic factors. Among the 1452 patients from the "neoadjuvant dataset", 36 (2.4%) had LDF (Stage II-III: 3.3%; IV: 1.3%). Using multivariate tests, high-risk diseases (OR = 0.18) and KELIM (OR = 2.96) were significant.

The probability of LDF > 5 years after first-line treatment in 3486 patients (<4%) was lower than thought. These data could represent a reference for future studies meant to assess progress related to PARP inhibitors.