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The starting dates of COVID-19 multiple waves.

Paulo Roberto de Lima Gianfelice1, Ricardo Sovek Oyarzabal1, Americo Cunha2

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Summary

This study introduces a statistical method to pinpoint COVID-19 outbreak origins. Results indicate the virus circulated in Rio de Janeiro by late February 2020, potentially spreading during Carnival.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Statistical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The rapid global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused significant international concern due to the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
  • Initial detection of COVID-19 in Rio de Janeiro occurred in March 2020, but the precise start of local transmission remains uncertain due to unpreparedness of the Brazilian epidemiological surveillance system.
  • Accurately identifying the emergence of new community transmission outbreaks is challenging due to the complex nature of disease spread.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a general methodology for determining the start dates of multiple COVID-19 community outbreaks.
  • To develop a statistical model capable of describing observed COVID-19 contagion waves.
  • To apply this methodology to the COVID-19 dynamics in Rio de Janeiro as a case study.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing a parametric statistical approach.
  • Combining epidemiological surveillance data with nonlinear regression techniques.
  • Employing information criteria to select the optimal statistical model.

Main Results:

  • The developed methodology successfully identified potential start dates for multiple COVID-19 community outbreaks.
  • Analysis of COVID-19 dynamics in Rio de Janeiro suggests the original SARS-CoV-2 strain was present as early as late February 2020.
  • Evidence points to massive dissemination during the Carnival festivities.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed statistical methodology offers a robust approach to identifying the emergence of infectious disease outbreaks.
  • The findings suggest an earlier circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro than previously confirmed.
  • Public health interventions and surveillance strategies should consider potential early introduction and rapid dissemination events, especially during large public gatherings.