Benefit-risk assessment of COVID-19 vaccine, mRNA (Comirnaty) for age 16-29 years

Since authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, mRNA (Comirnaty), real-world evidence has indicated the vaccines are effective in preventing COVID-19 cases and related hospitalizations and deaths. However, increased cases of myocarditis/pericarditis have been reported in the United States associated with vaccination, particularly in adolescents and young adults. FDA conducted a benefit-risk assessment to determine whether the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks among various age (16-17, 18-24, 25-29) and sex (M/F) subgroups being considered for approved use of the vaccine. We conducted a simulation study with sensitivity analysis of the benefits and risks of the vaccine across possible pandemic scenarios. The model results show benefits outweigh the risks for all scenarios including the high-risk subgroup, males 16-17 years old. Our worst-case scenario used sex and age subgroup-specific incidences for COVID-19 cases (47-98 per million per day) and hospitalizations (1-4 per million per day) which are the US COVID-19 incidences as of July 10, 2021, vaccine efficacy of 70% against COVID-19 cases and 80% against hospitalization, and unlikely, pessimistic, non-zero vaccine-attributable myocarditis death rate. For males 16-17 years old, the model predicts prevented COVID cases, hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths of 13577, 127, 41, and 1, respectively; while the predicted ranges for excess myocarditis/pericarditis cases, hospitalizations, and deaths attributable to the vaccine are [98-196], [98-196], and 0, respectively, for the worst-case scenario. Considering the different clinical implications of hospitalization due to COVID-19 infection versus vaccine-attributable myocarditis/pericarditis cases, we determine the benefits still outweigh the risks even for this high-risk subgroup. Our results demonstrate that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh its risks for all age and sex subgroups we analyze in this study. Uncertainties exist in this assessment as both benefits and risks of vaccination may change with the continuing evolution of the pandemic.