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Changing relationships between HIV prevalence and circumcision in Lesotho
Michel Garenne1,2,3
1MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Journal of Biosocial Science
|April 4, 2022
Summary
Circumcision
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Behavioral Science
Background:
- Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) campaigns aimed to reduce HIV transmission in Lesotho.
- Pre-epidemic, male circumcision was a traditional custom; VMMC increased its prevalence post-2008.
- HIV prevalence remained stable despite rising circumcision rates.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the evolving relationship between male circumcision and HIV prevalence in Lesotho.
- To assess the impact of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) on HIV rates.
- To examine confounding factors influencing the circumcision-HIV association.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from 2004, 2009, and 2014.
- Calculation of relative risks (RR) and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence by circumcision status.
- Multivariate regression controlling for socioeconomic and behavioral variables.
Main Results:
- In 2004, circumcised men had higher HIV prevalence (RR=1.49); this reversed by 2014 (RR=0.86).
- Education interacted with circumcision, with educated men showing decreased HIV risk over time.
- Multivariate analysis found no significant net effect of circumcision on HIV, but a small VMMC effect possibly linked to condom use.
Conclusions:
- The association between male circumcision and HIV in Lesotho is complex and has changed over time.
- Education and condom use appear to be significant factors modifying the relationship.
- The study questions the cost-effectiveness of large-scale Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) programs in this context.
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