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Modeling COVID-19 effects on SDGs using system dynamics in Egypt.

Mohamed Marzouk1, Shimaa Azab2, Nehal Elshaboury3

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
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COVID-19 significantly impacts Egypt's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A system dynamic model projects improvements in poverty reduction, food security, economic growth, and climate action by 2050, aiding policy decisions.

Keywords:
COVID-19Impact assessmentSustainable Development GoalsSystem dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science and policy
  • Development economics
  • Public health modeling

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic presents a substantial risk to achieving global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
  • Egypt's progress towards SDGs 1 (no poverty), 2 (zero hunger), 8 (decent work and economic growth), and 13 (climate action) is under scrutiny.
  • Understanding the pandemic's long-term effects is crucial for effective policy interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the impact of COVID-19 on four key SDGs in Egypt up to 2050.
  • To develop an interactive tool for analyzing policy interventions and their effects on public health and economic indicators.
  • To identify critical leverage points for mitigating the pandemic's negative consequences.

Main Methods:

  • A system dynamic model was developed to simulate the period from 2015 to 2050.
  • The model incorporates indicators for poverty, food insecurity, GDP growth, and greenhouse gas emissions.
  • A web-based interactive learning environment was created for policy analysis.

Main Results:

  • The poverty line is projected to decrease to approximately 16% by 2050.
  • Food insecurity is expected to reach full sufficiency by 2050, with 3% by 2030.
  • GDP growth rate is forecasted to rise, reaching 13.71% by 2050, while GHG emissions are predicted to decline to 97 Mt CO2-equivalents by 2050.

Conclusions:

  • Egypt demonstrates potential to achieve significant progress on SDGs 1, 2, 8, and 13 by 2050, despite COVID-19.
  • The system dynamic model and interactive tool can guide policymakers in addressing the pandemic's repercussions.
  • Proactive policy interventions are vital for safeguarding economic, social, and environmental well-being.