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Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios
Luciana F Prado1,2, Ilana Wainer1, Ronald B DE Souza3
1Universidade de São Paulo, Instituto Oceanográfico, Praça do Oceanográfico, 191, Cidade Universitária, 05508-120 São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Anais Da Academia Brasileira De Ciencias
|April 6, 2022
Summary
Global warming impacts polar regions, affecting Southern Hemisphere climate. The Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) suggests future warming may strengthen positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phases.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
- Polar Studies
Background:
- Polar regions are highly sensitive to global warming, experiencing sea-ice reduction and altered atmospheric/oceanic circulation.
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a key climate variability pattern in the Southern Hemisphere, characterized by sea level pressure changes.
- Recent positive SAM trends are linked to ozone depletion and greenhouse gases, a topic requiring further climate modeling investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the temporal and spatial behavior of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in future climate scenarios.
- To compare future SAM behavior with historical climate data using a climate model.
Main Methods:
- Utilized monthly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM).
- Simulated historical climate periods and future climate scenarios to assess SAM variability.
Main Results:
- The spatial pattern of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is projected to remain consistent under global warming.
- Increased radiative forcing may lead to a reinforcement of positive SAM values observed in historical periods.
Conclusions:
- Climate models like BESM are crucial for understanding Southern Hemisphere climate variability under future warming.
- While the SAM pattern may not change, its positive phases could become more pronounced with increased radiative forcing.
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