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Development and Validation of a Novel Clinical Prediction Model to Predict the Risk of Lung Metastasis from Ewing
Wenle Li1,2, Tao Hong3, Chan Xu2
1Department of Orthopedics, Xianyang Central Hospital, Xianyang, China.
Background:
This study aimed at establishing and validating a quantitative and visual prognosis model of Ewing Sarcoma (E.S.) via a nomogram. This model was developed to predict the risk of lung metastasis (L.M.) in patients with E.S. to provide a practical tool and help in clinical diagnosis and treatment.
Methods:
Data of all patients diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma between 2010 and 2016 were retrospectively retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A training dataset from the enrolled cohorts was built (n = 929). Predictive factors for L.M. were identified based on the results of multivariable logistic regression analyses. A nomogram model and a web calculator were constructed based on those key predictors. A multicenter dataset from four medical institutions was established for model validation (n = 51). The predictive ability of the nomogram model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration plot. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to explain the accuracy of the nomogram model in clinical practice.
Results:
Five independent factors, including survival time, surgery, tumor (T) stage, node (N) stage, and bone metastasis, were identified to develop a nomogram model. Internal and external validation indicated significant predictive discrimination: the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value was 0.769 (95% CI: 0.740 to 0.795) in the training cohort and 0.841 (95% CI: 0.712 to 0.929) in the validation cohort, respectively. Calibration plots and DCA presented excellent performance of the nomogram model with great clinical utility.
Conclusions:
In this study, a nomogram model was constructed and validated to predict L.M. in patients with E.S. for medical human-computer interface-a web calculator (https://drliwenle.shinyapps.io/LMESapp/). This practical tool could help clinicians make better decisions to provide precision prognosis and treatment for patients with E.S.
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