Development and validation of prediction model for incident overactive bladder: The Nagahama study

Area of Science:

• Urology
• Epidemiology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Overactive bladder (OAB) is a prevalent condition affecting quality of life.
• Predicting the onset of OAB is crucial for timely intervention and management.
• Large-scale prospective studies are needed to identify risk factors and develop predictive tools.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate risk prediction models for new-onset overactive bladder (OAB) within a 5-year timeframe.
• To identify key demographic, behavioral, comorbidity, and clinical predictors of OAB development.
• To assess the predictive performance of developed models in a general population cohort.

Main Methods:

• Secondary analysis of a Japanese longitudinal cohort study (2008-2010 baseline, 5-year follow-up).
• Inclusion of participants without OAB at baseline, assessed using the Overactive Bladder Symptom Score (OABSS).
• Development of logistic regression models with penalized likelihood (LASSO) using baseline characteristics and blood test data, validated internally and temporally.

Main Results:

• Analysis included 7218 participants (2238 males, 4980 females).
• New-onset OAB occurred in 10.0% of males and 5.8% of females over 5 years.
• The best models demonstrated good discrimination (C-statistic ~0.77) and calibration for both sexes, with low optimism upon validation.

Conclusions:

• Effective risk prediction models for new-onset overactive bladder (OAB) were successfully developed for both men and women.
• The models incorporate a range of predictors, offering valuable tools for identifying individuals at higher risk.
• These findings support proactive strategies for OAB prevention and management in the general population.