Pfizer and Palbociclib in China: Analyzing an Oncology Pay-for-Performance Plan

China is poised to become the world's second-largest oncology drug market. Its ability to continue broadening health coverage is in question. Institutional innovations such as performance-based risk-sharing agreements (PBRSAs) have been developed to promote access to novel therapeutics beyond that provided by public health insurance and central procurement systems. We examine in depth the financial implications of a PBRSA developed in China for the breast cancer drug palbociclib.

We generated a 2-state Markov model from PBRSA information made publicly available. Model inputs included breast cancer outcomes data from the published literature. The primary analysis estimates the percentage reduction in overall drug expenditures due to the PBRSA. Sensitivity analyses explored the financial impact of varied computed tomography scan utilization, rebate rate, and rebate duration.

Estimated palbociclib expenditures for the PBRSA cohort totaled $36 278 000. Based on the publicly available information for the PBRSA, an effective discount of 1.3% was estimated. The effective discount was insensitive to changes in computed tomography scan utilization.

The palbociclib PBRSA likely had negligible impact on patient access to therapy and limited downstream financial impact to patients and payers. The short duration of the rebate window, small rebate, and disease indolence contributed to the low expected rebate percentage.