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A new multivariate grey prediction model for forecasting China's regional energy consumption
Geng Wu1, Yi-Chung Hu1, Yu-Jing Chiu1
1Department of Business Administration, Chung Yuan Christian University, 32023 Taoyuan, Taiwan.
Environment, Development and Sustainability
|April 11, 2022
Summary
Accurately predicting regional energy consumption in China is vital for policy-making. A new multivariate grey prediction model, using regional GDP, shows superior performance in forecasting energy demand.
Area of Science:
- Energy economics
- Econometrics
- Grey system theory
Background:
- Accurate energy consumption prediction is crucial for China's energy planning and policy formulation.
- The dual control policy on energy consumption and intensity necessitates reliable regional forecasting.
- Energy consumption is influenced by multiple factors, requiring sophisticated predictive models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a novel non-homogeneous, discrete, multivariate grey prediction model.
- To predict regional energy consumption in China.
- To identify key drivers of regional energy consumption.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing a non-homogeneous, discrete, multivariate grey prediction model based on adjacent accumulation.
- Employing grey relational analysis to select regional GDP as the independent variable.
- Comparing the proposed model's performance against other multivariate grey models.
Main Results:
- The proposed multivariate grey prediction model demonstrated superior accuracy in predicting regional energy consumption in China.
- Regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was identified as a significant predictor of energy consumption.
- A strong positive correlation between economic development and energy consumption across Chinese regions was confirmed.
Conclusions:
- The developed grey prediction model offers a reliable tool for forecasting regional energy consumption in China.
- Economic development is intrinsically linked to energy consumption, a relationship expected to persist post-COVID-19.
- Continued regional economic growth will likely lead to increased energy demand in China.
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