Forest Loss is Accelerating Along the US Gulf Coast

Area of Science:

• Coastal ecology
• Climate change impacts
• Geospatial analysis

Background:

• The Florida Big Bend coastline is experiencing significant coastal forest loss.
• Low elevation and accelerated sea-level rise exacerbate marsh encroachment.
• Previous studies on forest-to-marsh conversion are outdated and limited in scope.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the current rate of coastal forest loss in the Florida Big Bend.
• To update and expand upon previous assessments of land cover change.
• To analyze the impact of sea-level rise on this unique coastal ecosystem.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Landsat satellite imagery from 2003-2016 for regional analysis.
• Corroborated satellite data with in situ landscape photography.
• Employed high-resolution aerial imagery for validation.

Main Results:

• Coastal forest loss to marsh encroachment has increased dramatically.
• The rate of conversion is approximately 10 km² year⁻¹, an over 800% increase from prior estimates.
• Previously unaffected areas are now experiencing rapid forest retreat.

Conclusions:

• Sea-level rise is driving unprecedented rates of coastal forest loss in the Florida Big Bend.
• The rate of marsh encroachment has accelerated significantly in the 21st century.
• Urgent conservation and adaptation strategies are needed for this vulnerable region.