Evaluating predictive relationships between wristbands and urine for assessment of personal PAH exposure

During events like the COVID-19 pandemic or a disaster, researchers may need to switch from collecting biological samples to personal exposure samplers that are easy and safe to transport and wear, such as silicone wristbands. Previous studies have demonstrated significant correlations between urine biomarker concentrations and chemical levels in wristbands. We build upon those studies and use a novel combination of descriptive statistics and supervised statistical learning to evaluate the relationship between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in silicone wristbands and hydroxy-PAH (OH-PAH) concentrations in urine. In New York City, 109 participants in a longitudinal birth cohort wore one wristband for 48 h and provided a spot urine sample at the end of the 48-hour period during their third trimester of pregnancy. We compared four PAHs with the corresponding seven OH-PAHs using descriptive statistics, a linear regression model, and a linear discriminant analysis model. Five of the seven PAH and OH-PAH pairs had significant correlations (Pearson's r = 0.35-0.64, p ≤ 0.003) and significant chi-square tests of independence for exposure categories (p ≤ 0.009). For these five comparisons, the observed PAH or OH-PAH concentration could predict the other concentration within a factor of 1.47 for 50-80% of the measurements (depending on the pair). Prediction accuracies for high exposure categories were at least 1.5 times higher compared to accuracies based on random chance. These results demonstrate that wristbands and urine provide similar PAH exposure assessment information, which is critical for environmental health researchers looking for the flexibility to switch between biological sample and wristband collection.