Machine Learning to Delineate Surgeon and Clinical Factors That Anticipate Positive Surgical Margins After...

Automated performance metrics (APMs), derived from instrument kinematic and systems events data during robotic surgery, are validated objective measures of surgeon performance. Our previous studies showed that APMs are strong outcome predictors of urinary continence after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP). We now use machine learning to investigate how surgeon performance (i.e., APMs) and clinical factors can predict positive surgical margins (PSMs) after RARP. We prospectively collected data of patients undergoing RARP at our institution from 2016 to 2019. Random Forest model predicted PSMs based on 15 clinical factors and 38 APMs from 11 standardized RARP steps. Out-of-bag Gini impurity index determined the top 10 variables of importance (VOI). APMs in the top 10 VOI were assessed for confounding effects by extracapsular extension (ECE) and pathologic T (pT) through Poisson regression with Generalized Estimating Equation. 55/236 (23.3%) cases had PSMs. Of the 55 cases with PSMs, 9 (16.4%) were pT2 and 46 (83.6%), pT3. The full model, including clinical factors and APMs, achieved area under the curve (AUC) 0.74. When assessing clinical factors or APMs alone, the model achieved AUC 0.72 and 0.64, respectively. The strongest PSM predictors were ECE and pT stage, followed by APMs in specific steps. After adjusting for ECE and pT stage, most APMs remained as independent predictors of PSM. Using machine learning methods, we found that the strongest predictors of PSMs after RARP are nonmodifiable, disease-driven factors (ECE and pT). While APMs provide minimal additional insight into when PSMs may occur, they are nonetheless capable of independently predicting PSMs based on objective measures of surgeon performance.