COVID-19's intra-urban inequalities and social vulnerability in a medium-sized city

Social conditions are related to the impact of epidemics on human populations. This study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19 and its association with social vulnerability.

An ecological study was conducted in 81 urban regions (UR) of Juiz de Fora from March to November 2020. Exposure was measured using the Health Vulnerability Index (HVI), a synthetic indicator that combines socioeconomic and environmental variables from the Demographic Census 2010. Regression models were estimated for counting data with overdispersion (negative binomial generalized linear model) using Bayesian methods, with observed frequencies as the outcome, expected frequencies as the offset variable, and HVI as the explanatory variable. Unstructured random-effects (to capture the effect of unmeasured factors) and spatially structured effects (to capture the spatial correlation between observations) were included in the models. The models were estimated for the entire period and quarter.

There were 30,071 suspected cases, 8,063 confirmed cases, 1,186 hospitalizations, and 376 COVID-19 deaths. In the second quarter of the epidemic, compared to the low vulnerability URs, the high vulnerability URs had a lower risk of confirmed cases (RR=0.61; CI95% 0.49-0.76) and a higher risk of hospitalizations (RR=1.65; CI95% 1.23-2.22) and deaths (RR=1.73; CI95% 1.08-2.75).

The lower risk of confirmed cases in the most vulnerable UR probably reflected lower access to confirmatory tests, while the higher risk of hospitalizations and deaths must have been related to the greater severity of the epidemic in the city's poorest regions.