COVID-19 community spread and consequences for prison case rates

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Criminology

Background:

• COVID-19 disproportionately affects incarcerated populations, with higher case rates than the general public.
• The influence of community COVID-19 transmission on prison outbreaks remains under-explored.
• This study investigates the link between community COVID-19 rates and in-prison case rates.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine the relationship between general population COVID-19 case rates and those within correctional facilities.
• To assess how community spread influences COVID-19 incidence in prisons.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of COVID-19 testing data from North Carolina (NC) from June to August 2020.
• Utilized interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the impact of substantial community spread on prison COVID-19 rates.
• Defined substantial community spread as 50 cases per 100,000 and prison case rates as cases per 100,000 over 14 days.

Main Results:

• Over 29,000 tests were conducted in NC prisons, identifying 1,639 cases.
• Incarcerated individuals had a mean COVID-19 case rate of 427 per 100,000, compared to 215 per 100,000 in the general population.
• Substantial community COVID-19 spread was associated with an increase of 118.55 cases per 100,000 in prisons.

Conclusions:

• Community COVID-19 transmission is a significant driver of cases within correctional facilities.
• Close monitoring of community spread is essential in counties containing prisons.
• Prioritizing in-prison measures like vaccination and decarceration is vital to mitigate COVID-19 outbreaks.