A hybrid satellite and land use regression model of source-specific PM_2.5 and PM_2.5 constituents

Although PM_2.5 mass varies in source and composition over time and space, most health effects assessment have made the inherent assumption that all PM_2.5 mass has the same health implications, irrespective of composition. Nationwide estimates of source-specific PM_2.5 mass and constituents at local-scale would allow for epidemiological studies and health effects assessments that consider the variability in PM_2.5 characteristics in their health impact assessments. In response, we developed US models of annual exposures at the census tract level for five major PM_2.5 sources (traffic, soil, coal, oil, and biomass combustion) and six trace elements (elemental carbon, sulfur, silicon, selenium, nickel, and non-soil potassium) for 2001 through 2014. We employed Absolute Factor Analysis (APCA) to derive the source-specific PM_2.5 impacts at monitoring stations. Random forest algorithms that incorporated predictors derived from satellite, chemical transport model, and census tract resolution land-use data on traffic, meteorology, and emissions, which were rigorously tested by 10-fold cross-validation (CV), were then employed to estimate elemental and source-specific PM_2.5 levels at non-monitoring site census-tracts over the study years. Model performances were moderate to good, with CV R² ranging from 0.41 to 0.95. For PM_2.5 sources, the highest CV R² was attained for traffic PM_2.5 (CV R² = 0.73), followed by coal (CV R² = 0.65), oil (CV R² = 0.62), soil (CV R² = 0.60), and biomass (CV R² = 0.41). Among constituents, the CV was highest for sulfur (CV R² = 0.95). Our analyses provided highly resolved spatial estimates of annual elemental and source-specific PM_2.5 concentrations at the census-tract level, for 2001 through 2014. This dataset offers exposure estimates in support of future nationwide long-term health effects studies of source-specific PM_2.5 mass and constituents, enabling epidemiological research that addresses the fact that not all particles are the same.