Future Financing Scenarios for Iran's Healthcare System

Area of Science:

• Health economics
• Health policy and management
• Futures studies

Background:

• Health system financing is complex and requires proactive planning amid environmental uncertainties.
• Anticipating future impacts and planning interventions are crucial for successful health system financing.
• The study addresses the need for scenario development in Iran's health system financing.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop future scenarios for health system financing in Iran.
• To identify key factors influencing the future of health system financing.
• To assess the adaptability of different financing scenarios.

Main Methods:

• A mixed-design, exploratory future study using the scenario method.
• Evaluation of key variables for importance and uncertainty via questionnaires and focus groups.
• Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis using Scenario Wizard software for sensitivity analysis.

Main Results:

• 25 factors were initially selected, with eight key variables identified based on MICMAC analysis.
• Five variables were finalized as scenario drivers, leading to 270 developed scenarios.
• Five scenarios were identified as highly adaptable, and fourteen as poorly adaptable.

Conclusions:

• The most adaptable scenario integrates massive technology, oil sales, mediocre economic conditions, strong leadership, high regional security, and low corruption.
• This scenario offers a potential pathway for resilient health system financing in Iran.
• The findings support evidence-based policy-making for future health financing strategies.