Development and Validation of a Novel Radiomics-Based Nomogram With Machine Learning to Preoperatively Predict...

Tumor grade is the determinant of the biological aggressiveness of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) and the best current tool to help establish individualized therapeutic strategies. A noninvasive way to accurately predict the histology grade of PNETs preoperatively is urgently needed and extremely limited.

The models training and the construction of the radiomic signature were carried out separately in three-phase (plain, arterial, and venous) CT. Mann-Whitney U test and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were applied for feature preselection and radiomic signature construction. SVM-linear models were trained by incorporating the radiomic signature with clinical characteristics. An optimal model was then chosen to build a nomogram.

A total of 139 PNETs (including 83 in the training set and 56 in the independent validation set) were included in the present study. We build a model based on an eight-feature radiomic signature (group 1) to stratify PNET patients into grades 1 and 2/3 groups with an AUC of 0.911 (95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.908-0.914) and 0.837 (95% CI, 0.827-0.847) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram combining the radiomic signature of plain-phase CT with T stage and dilated main pancreatic duct (MPD)/bile duct (BD) (group 2) showed the best performance (training set: AUC = 0.919, 95% CI = 0.916-0.922; validation set: AUC = 0.875, 95% CI = 0.867-0.883).

Our developed nomogram that integrates radiomic signature with clinical characteristics could be useful in predicting grades 1 and 2/3 PNETs preoperatively with powerful capability.