Abnormal time-zero histology is predictive of kidney transplant outcomes

Time-zero biopsies can detect donor-derived lesions at the time of kidney transplantation, but their utility in predicting long-term outcomes is unclear under the updated Kidney Allocation System.

We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study of 272 consecutive post-reperfusion time-zero biopsies. We tested the hypothesis that abnormal time-zero histology is a strong indicator of donor quality that increases the precision of the kidney donor profile index (KDPI) score to predict long-term outcomes.

We detected abnormal biopsies in 42% of the cohort, which were independently associated with a 1.2-fold increased hazard for a composite of acute rejection, allograft failure, and death after adjusting for clinical characteristics including KDPI. By Kaplan-Meier analysis, the relationship between abnormal time-zero histology and the composite endpoint was only significant in the subgroup of deceased donor kidney transplants with KDPI scores >35. Abnormal time-zero histology, particularly vascular intimal fibrosis and arteriolar hyalinosis scores, was independently associated with lower 12-month estimated GFR.

In conclusion, abnormal time-zero histology is relatively common and identifies a group of kidney recipients at increased risk for worse long-term outcomes. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal patient population in which to deploy time-zero biopsies as an additional surveillance tool.