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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Climate Change Science

Background:

  • Climate change poses a significant threat to mountain-specialist species adapted to cold environments.
  • Identifying climate refugia is essential for effective biodiversity conservation strategies.
  • High-elevation ecosystems in the European Alps are particularly vulnerable to warming trends.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify potential climate refugia for high-elevation bird species in the European Alps.
  • To predict range shifts and contractions under future climate scenarios.
  • To inform conservation planning for vulnerable alpine biodiversity.

Main Methods:

  • Combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) for 2041-2070.
  • Utilized a large, high-resolution occurrence dataset from citizen scientists for model fitting and validation.
  • Employed rigorous model selection based on accuracy, ecological realism, and extrapolation ability.

Main Results:

  • All studied species, except partially Anthus spinoletta, are predicted to contract their ranges towards higher elevations.
  • Range losses are estimated between 17% and 59%, with Lagopus muta experiencing larger reductions.
  • ~15,000 km² of in-situ refugia identified for at least three species, with only 44% currently within protected areas.

Conclusions:

  • Citizen science data is invaluable for accurate SDMs and conservation planning.
  • Existing protected areas incompletely cover crucial climate refugia for alpine species.
  • Priority conservation efforts should focus on identified refugia, preventing habitat degradation to ensure species survival.