Prospective Study of Ageing Trajectories in the European DO-HEALTH Study

Ageing trajectories range from delayed ageing with extended health to accelerated ageing, with an increased risk of frailty. We evaluated the prevalence and prospective change between health states among community-dwelling European older adults.

This prospective study is a secondary analysis of DO-HEALTH, a randomized trial that included adults aged 70 years and older across 5 European countries. Healthy agers (HA) fulfilled the Nurses' Health Study healthy ageing criteria and accelerated agers were non-HA being at least pre-frail according to the Fried frailty criteria. We assessed the proportion of participants changing between health states over 4 assessments and evaluated the odds of changing to a more favourable category. To increase reliability and avoid regression to the mean, we averaged the first 2 years and compared them to the average of the last 2 years.

Of 2,157 participants, 12.4% were excluded for meeting both healthy ageing and pre-frailty criteria simultaneously. Among the remaining 1,889 participants (mean age 75.1 years, 60.9% female), 23.1% were initially HA, 44.4% were non-HA but not pre-frail, and 32.6% were pre-frail or frail. Subsequently, 65.3% remained in the same health state, 12.0% improved to a healthier state, and 22.8% progressed to a less advantageous state. After adjusting for sex, study centre, treatment, and body mass index, each year of age was associated with 6% lower odds of improving health states. Women had 35% higher odds than men of following a disadvantageous trajectory.

We observed dynamic trajectories of ageing where transitioning to a healthier state became less likely with advancing age and among women.