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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Public health
  • Environmental science

Background:

  • Solar geoengineering is proposed to mitigate climate change impacts.
  • Its effects on human health, particularly infectious disease risk, remain largely unknown.
  • Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable populations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the impact of solar geoengineering on malaria risk under different climate scenarios.
  • To assess potential regional trade-offs in health outcomes.
  • To inform discussions on the equitable deployment of geoengineering technologies.

Main Methods:

  • Modeled malaria transmission suitability under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
  • Compared scenarios with and without solar geoengineering.
  • Quantified populations at risk of malaria.

Main Results:

  • Solar geoengineering could protect high-elevation East African populations from malaria.
  • It may increase malaria transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
  • By 2070, geoengineering could negate a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria compared to extreme warming.

Conclusions:

  • Solar geoengineering's health benefits are uncertain and may create regional disparities.
  • Geoengineering outcomes can lead to negative health trade-offs, particularly for Global South countries.
  • Equitable considerations and localized impacts must be central to geoengineering governance.