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Area of Science:

  • Global Health
  • Development Economics
  • Pediatric Nutrition

Background:

  • Macroeconomic volatility and severe economic shocks are prevalent in low and middle income countries.
  • These shocks exacerbate poverty and food insecurity, with less understood impacts on child acute malnutrition (wasting).
  • Child wasting is a significant risk factor for mortality in children under five.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the nutritional consequences of economic growth shocks on child acute malnutrition.
  • To quantify the relationship between national income changes and wasting prevalence.
  • To explore potential mechanisms linking economic shocks to malnutrition.

Main Methods:

  • Longitudinal analysis linking wasting outcomes for 1.256 million children across 52 countries (1990-2018).
  • Correlation with lagged annual changes in national economic growth.
  • Exploration of dietary diversity as a mediating factor.

Main Results:

  • A 10% annual decline in national income is associated with a 14.4-17.8% increase in moderate/severe wasting prevalence.
  • Negative economic shocks appear linked to reduced dietary diversity in children.
  • Projected 2020 economic conditions suggest COVID-19 could place an additional 9.4 million preschoolers at risk of wasting.

Conclusions:

  • Economic contractions pose a significant threat to child nutrition, increasing wasting prevalence.
  • Dietary diversity is a likely mechanism through which economic shocks impact child malnutrition.
  • Urgent policy interventions are needed to mitigate the nutritional impact of economic shocks, especially in the context of global health crises like COVID-19.