Thoracic mediastinal-occupying ratio predicts recovery and prognosis after lung transplantation

Even after transplantation of favourable donor lungs, some recipients require prolonged weaning from mechanical ventilation, indicating a poor prognosis. We investigated the effects of prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) for >14 days on the recovery and survival of patients who underwent cadaveric lung transplantation in relation to their physical traits.

We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent cadaveric lung transplantation (age ≥15 years) at a single centre between April 2015 and December 2020 and classified them into PMV and non-PMV groups (>14 and ≤14 days of mechanical ventilation postoperatively, respectively). The factors predicting PMV comprised clinical factors (e.g. marginal donor) and physical features, namely flat chest, narrow fourth intercostal space (length, <5 mm), mediastinal shift, thoracic mediastinal-occupying ratio (TMOR) >40% and sarcopenia, according to the logistic regression analysis. The log-rank test was used to examine the association between TMOR >40% and 3-year prognosis.

The PMV group comprised 17 (33%) of 51 recipients. Multivariable logistic analysis showed that the TMOR >40% (odds ratio, 7.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-40.1; P = 0.023) was an independent preoperative predictive factor for PMV postoperatively. Stepwise analysis revealed intraoperative extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and reoperation as postoperative predictive factors in addition to TMOR >40%. Recipients with TMOR >40% had significantly worse 3-year survival than other recipients (71.2% vs 100.0%, respectively; P = 0.008).

Recipients with a TMOR >40% may be long-term ventilator dependent and have a poor prognosis.