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Updated: Sep 26, 2025

Proof-of-Concept for Gas-Entrapping Membranes Derived from Water-Loving SiO2/Si/SiO2 Wafers for Green Desalination
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Is Desalination a Solution to Freshwater Scarcity in Developing Countries?

Nirajan Dhakal1,2,3, Sergio G Salinas-Rodriguez1, Jamal Hamdani4

  • 1Water Supply, Sanitation and Environmental Engineering Department, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Westvest 7, 2611 AX Delft, The Netherlands.

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|April 21, 2022
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Summary

By 2050, water scarcity will affect 2 billion people, particularly in developing nations. Membrane desalination offers a solution, with 14 countries needing 54 Mm3/day capacity to meet demand.

Keywords:
desalinationdeveloping countriespopulation growthwater scarcity

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Water Resource Management
  • Technology Assessment

Background:

  • Population growth and urbanization drive freshwater over-abstraction, leading to global water scarcity.
  • By 2050, an estimated 2 billion people in 44 countries, primarily developing nations, will face severe water scarcity.
  • Key countries like Uganda, Nigeria, and Pakistan are projected to be most affected.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the projected water scarcity by 2050 and the potential role of desalination.
  • To estimate the additional desalination capacity required for 14 water-scarce countries.
  • To explore the application of desalinated water for municipal and industrial use.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of World Bank population projections and FAO AQUASTAT freshwater availability data.
  • Calculation of future desalination capacity needs based on current municipal demand and renewable resource withdrawal.
  • Review of case studies on desalination adoption in India, China, and South Africa.

Main Results:

  • 14 water-scarce countries will require an additional 54 Mm3/day desalination capacity by 2050.
  • Desalination is emerging as a key technology for water-scarce regions.
  • Desalinated water can serve municipal needs and potentially industrial users.

Conclusions:

  • Desalination is crucial for mitigating future water scarcity in vulnerable nations.
  • Significant investment in desalination capacity is needed to meet projected demand.
  • Addressing challenges like cost, energy use, and environmental impact is vital for widespread desalination adoption.