The important choice of reference environment in microevolutionary climate response predictions

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Ecology
• Climate change adaptation

Background:

• Wild populations adapt to climate change via phenotypic plasticity and microevolution.
• Distinguishing these adaptation mechanisms requires a defined reference environment.
• Arbitrary reference points can lead to significant errors in microevolution predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a method for estimating the reference environment.
• To improve the accuracy of predicting microevolutionary adaptation.
• To disentangle phenotypic plasticity from genetic adaptation.

Main Methods:

• A prediction error method is proposed for estimating the reference environment.
• The method utilizes environmental, phenotypic, and fitness data.
• Feasibility is demonstrated through simulations and a toy example.

Main Results:

• The proposed method allows for estimation of the reference environment.
• Estimated reference environments can have substantial errors, particularly in small populations.
• The method offers a potentially more accurate alternative to arbitrary or historical environmental values.

Conclusions:

• Accurate reference environment estimation is critical for understanding microevolutionary responses to environmental change.
• The developed prediction error method provides a framework for this estimation.
• This work contributes to a better understanding of genetic adaptation in natural populations facing climate change.