Evolutionary analyses of emerging GII.2[P16] and GII.4 Sydney [P16] noroviruses

GII.2[P16] and GII.4 Sydney [P16] are currently the two predominant norovirus genotypes. This study sought to clarify their evolutionary patterns by analyzing the major capsid VP1 and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) genes. Sequence diversities were analyzed at both nucleotide and amino acid levels. Selective pressures were evaluated with the Hyphy package in different models. Phylogenetic trees were constructed by the maximum likelihood method from full VP1 sequences, and evolutionary rates were estimated by the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. The results showed that (1) several groups of tightly linked mutations between the RdRp and VP1 genes were detected in the GII.2[P16] and GII.4[P16] noroviruses, and most of these mutations were synonymous, which may lead to a better viral fitness to the host; (2) although the pattern of having new GII.4 variants every 2-4 years has been broken, both the pre- and the post-2015 Sydney VP1 had comparable evolutionary rates to previously epidemic GII.4 variants, and half of the major antigenic sites on GII.4 Sydney had residue substitutions and several caused obvious changes in the carbohydrate-binding surface that may potentially alter the property of the virus; and (3) GII.4 Sydney variants during 2018-21 showed geographical specificity in East Asia, South Asia, and North America; the antigenic sites of GII.2 are strictly conserved, but the GII.2 VP1 chronologically evolved into nine different sublineages over time, with sublineage IX being the most prevalent one since 2018. This study suggested that both VP1 and RdRp of the GII.2[P16] and GII.4 Sydney [P16] noroviruses exhibited different evolutionary directions. GII.4[P16] is likely to generate potential novel epidemic variants by accumulating mutations in the P2 domain, similar to previously epidemic GII.4 variants, while GII.2[P16] has conserved predicted antigenicity and may evolve by changing the properties of nonstructural proteins, such as polymerase replicational fidelity and efficiency. This study expands the understanding of the evolutionary dynamics of GII.2[P16] and GII.4[P16] noroviruses and may predict the emergence of new variants.