Projecting the Pandemic Trajectory through Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19

The course of the COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to many disease trends at various population scales, ranging from local to global. Understanding these trends and the epidemiological phenomena that lead to the changing dynamics associated with disease progression is critical for public health officials and the global community to rein in further spread of this and other virulent diseases. Classic epidemiological modeling based on dynamical systems are powerful tools used for modeling and understanding diseases, but often necessitate modifications to the classic compartmental models to reflect empirical observations. In this paper, we present a collection of extensions to the classic SIRS model to support public health decisions associated with viral pandemics. Specifically, we present models that reflect different levels of disease severity among infected individuals, capture the effect of vaccination on different population groups, capture the effect of different vaccines with different levels of effectiveness, and model the impact of a vaccine with varying number of doses. Further, our mathematical models support the investigation of a pandemic's trend under the emergence of new variants and the associated reduction in vaccine effectiveness. Our models are supported through numerical simulations, which we use to illustrate phenomena that have been observed in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings also confirm observations that the mild infectious group accounts for the majority of infected individuals, and that prompt immunization results in weaker pandemic waves across all levels of infection as well as a lower number of disease-caused deaths. Finally, using our models, we demonstrate that, when dealing with a single variant and having access to a highly effective vaccine, a three-dose vaccine has a strong ability to reduce the infectious population. However, when a new variant with higher transmissibility and lower vaccine efficiency emerges, it becomes the dominant circulating variant, as was observed in the recent emergence of the Omicron variant.