Carbon Mitigation Pathways of Urban Transportation under Cold Climatic Conditions

Climate heterogeneity has enormous impacts on CO₂ emissions of the transportation sector, especially in cold regions where the demand for in-car heating and anti-skid measures leads to high energy consumption, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles is low. It entails to propose targeted emission reduction measures in cold regions for peaking CO₂ emissions as soon as possible. This paper constructs an integrated long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model that incorporates multi-transportation modes and multi-energy types to predict the CO₂ emission trend of the urban transportation sector in a typical cold province of China. Five scenarios are set based on distinct level emission control for simulating the future trends during 2017-2050. The results indicate that the peak value is 704.7-742.1 thousand metric tons (TMT), and the peak time is 2023-2035. Energy-saving-low-carbon scenario (ELS) is the optimal scenario with the peak value of 716.6 TMT in 2028. Energy intensity plays a dominant role in increasing CO₂ emissions of the urban transportation sector. Under ELS, CO₂ emissions can be reduced by 68.66%, 6.56% and 1.38% through decreasing energy intensity, increasing the proportion of public transportation and reducing the proportion of fossil fuels, respectively. Simultaneously, this study provides practical reference for other cold regions to formulate CO₂ reduction roadmaps.