Municipal Solid Waste generation dynamics. Breaks and thresholds analysis in the Italian context

Area of Science:

• Environmental Economics
• Circular Economy Policies
• Waste Management Studies

Background:

• Municipal solid waste prevention is a key focus of EU circular economy policies.
• Assessing the decoupling of waste generation from economic activity in Italy is crucial.
• Empirical evidence suggests Italy's progress in local waste decoupling is limited and uneven.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the decoupling status of municipal solid waste generation from economic activity in Italian provinces.
• To identify the drivers of structural changes in the income-waste relationship.
• To assess the minimal socio-economic performance requirements for decoupling waste generation from economic activity.

Main Methods:

• Utilized panel data from 103 Italian provinces (NUTS3) spanning 18 years (2001-2018).
• Employed a threshold model to identify observable minimal socio-economic performance requirements for decoupling.
• Differentiated the threshold model from traditional tipping point estimations to avoid spurious regressions.

Main Results:

• Decoupling of waste generation from economic activity is not uniform across Italian provinces.
• Economic activity and tourism emerged as significant threshold variables influencing waste prevention.
• Circular practices appear more dependent on local spending capacity than on factors like population density.

Conclusions:

• Heterogeneity in economic performance and waste policies contributes to uneven decoupling in Italy.
• Observable threshold variables, like economic activity and tourism, are critical for achieving waste decoupling.
• Future circular economy strategies should consider local financial capacities alongside structural characteristics.