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Trends in fertility preference implementation among selected Eastern African countries.

Vincent Otieno1, Alfred Agwanda Otieno1, Anne Khasakhala1

  • 1Population Studies and Research Institute, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya.

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Fertility transition in Eastern Africa is progressing due to increased family planning access and women

Keywords:
Degree of Preference Implementation IndexEastern AfricaFertility PreferenceWanted Fertility

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Public Health
  • Sociology

Background:

  • Ongoing scholarly debate on the pace of fertility transition in Africa.
  • Two main conclusions: slow decline due to weak social programs and high demand for large families, or accelerated decline with reduced desired fertility and improved preference implementation.
  • Emergent exceptions in Eastern Africa, particularly Rwanda and Kenya, warrant focused study due to shared policy frameworks and potential for cross-border behavioral influence.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze trends in fertility preferences and their implementation among women of reproductive age in Eastern Africa.
  • To investigate factors influencing fertility decline using the Bongaarts supply-demand framework.
  • To understand the dynamics of fertility transition in a region with shared characteristics and notable exceptions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data to analyze trends over time.
  • Applied the Bongaarts supply-demand framework to assess fertility preferences and implementation.
  • Decomposed trends in fertility preferences and implementation to understand their contributions to fertility decline.

Main Results:

  • Observed a rising aggregate degree of fertility preference implementation index.
  • Documented continuous declining trends in the demand for births.
  • Found increasing contributions from wanted fertility and preference implementation to fertility transition across categories, indicating progress in all studied countries.

Conclusions:

  • Fertility transition is demonstrably underway in Eastern African countries, albeit at varying paces.
  • The effectiveness of family planning programs is a key driver of this transition.
  • Sustained progress necessitates integrating family planning initiatives with robust public education and sensitization campaigns.