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Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: Updated Modeling Study for the US Preventive
Steven P Dehmer1, Lauren R O'Keefe1, Corinne V Evans2
1HealthPartners Institute, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Low-dose aspirin use for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) offers benefits, particularly for younger individuals with higher CVD risk. However, benefits diminish with age, and risks of bleeding must be considered.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Disease Prevention
- Gastrointestinal Health
- Preventive Medicine
Background:
- The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating guidelines on aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC).
- Previous recommendations from 2016 require updated evidence on the net balance of benefits and harms.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide updated model-based estimates of the net benefits and harms of low-dose aspirin for primary prevention.
- To inform updated USPSTF recommendations.
Main Methods:
- Microsimulation modeling was used to estimate long-term benefits and harms.
- Hypothetical US cohorts of men and women aged 40-79 years with varying 10-year CVD risk were analyzed.
- Low-dose aspirin (≤100 mg/d) use was modeled for lifetime, with various stopping ages.
Main Results:
- Lifetime net quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were positive for individuals starting aspirin at younger ages (40-59) with at least 5% 10-year CVD risk, and for those aged 60-69 with at least 10% risk.
- Lifetime net life-years showed similar positive trends for younger individuals and higher CVD risk.
- Benefits diminished and became negative for most individuals starting aspirin at ages 60-79, and QALYs were negative for those aged 70-79.
- Stopping aspirin between ages 65-85 showed little advantage over lifetime use.
- Sensitivity analyses indicated that benefits could be higher if aspirin reduced CRC or CVD mortality, and lower if it increased bleeding or reduced quality of life.
Conclusions:
- Aspirin for primary CVD prevention may benefit specific populations, particularly younger individuals with higher baseline CVD risk.
- The decision to initiate aspirin should carefully weigh potential benefits against the risk of bleeding, especially in older adults.
- These findings support nuanced recommendations based on age and individual CVD risk profiles.
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