ZIP Code-Level Estimation of Air Quality and Health Risk Due to Particulate Matter Pollution in New York City
Komal Shukla1, Catherine Seppanen1, Brian Naess1
1Institute for the Environment, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, United States.
New York City (NYC) can now assess air pollution health benefits at the neighborhood level using the ZAPPA tool. This tool estimates significant reductions in premature deaths and asthma visits, offering substantial monetary savings through targeted air quality policies.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health Sciences
- Air Quality Modeling
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- Particulate Matter (PM2.5) exposure causes hundreds of premature deaths annually in NYC.
- Existing air quality tools lack neighborhood-level granularity for health impact assessments.
- Evaluating energy efficiency and climate policies requires localized health benefit analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate the ZIP Code-Level Air Pollution Policy Assessment (ZAPPA) tool for NYC.
- To enable localized (ZIP Code Tabulation Area - ZCTA) health and monetary benefit analysis of air quality policies.
- To assess PM2.5 reduction benefits from various policy scenarios in NYC.
Main Methods:
- Integrated Community Air Quality Tools (C-TOOLS) and Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA) into ZAPPA.
- Utilized high-resolution inputs for emissions, health incidence, and population data.
- Validated ZAPPA's modeled 2016 PM2.5 against EPA and NYCCAS monitor data, achieving good performance metrics (FAC2=1, NMSE=0.05).
Main Results:
- The 'citywide sustainable policy implementation' scenario estimated a 0.9 μg/m3 average PM2.5 reduction.
- This reduction is projected to avoid 210-475 deaths and 340 asthma emergency department visits annually.
- Monetized health benefits are estimated between $2B and $5B annually, with significant ZCTA-level variations.
Conclusions:
- ZAPPA provides a robust platform for neighborhood-level air pollution health impact assessment in NYC.
- ZCTA-level analysis is crucial for prioritizing interventions in areas with the greatest potential health benefits.
- The tool offers quantitative insights to support future sustainability policy development and air quality management decisions in NYC.
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