Radiomics-Based Machine Learning for Outcome Prediction in a Multicenter Phase II Study of Programmed Death-Ligand 1...

Imaging assessment of an immunotherapy response in glioblastoma is challenging due to overlap in the appearance of treatment-related changes with tumor progression. Our purpose was to determine whether MR imaging radiomics-based machine learning can predict progression-free survival and overall survival in patients with glioblastoma on programmed death-ligand 1 inhibition immunotherapy.

Post hoc analysis was performed of a multicenter trial on the efficacy of durvalumab in glioblastoma (n = 113). Radiomics tumor features on pretreatment and first on-treatment time point MR imaging were extracted. The random survival forest algorithm was applied to clinical and radiomics features from pretreatment and first on-treatment MR imaging from a subset of trial sites (n = 60-74) to train a model to predict long overall survival and progression-free survival and was tested externally on data from the remaining sites (n = 29-43). Model performance was assessed using the concordance index and dynamic area under the curve from different time points.

The mean age was 55.2 (SD, 11.5) years, and 69% of patients were male. Pretreatment MR imaging features had a poor predictive value for overall survival and progression-free survival (concordance index  = 0.472-0.524). First on-treatment MR imaging features had high predictive value for overall survival (concordance index = 0.692-0.750) and progression-free survival (concordance index = 0.680-0.715).

A radiomics-based machine learning model from first on-treatment MR imaging predicts survival in patients with glioblastoma on programmed death-ligand 1 inhibition immunotherapy.