Projecting future temperature-related mortality using annual time series data: An example from Hong Kong

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Climate Change Science
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Past climate change mortality projections relied on short-term data.
• This study analyzes annual data from 1976-2018 in Hong Kong.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project temperature-related mortality in Hong Kong through the 21st century.
• To assess impacts under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
• To evaluate the role of human adaptation strategies.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a degree-days approach with quasi-Poisson generalized additive models.
• Regressed age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) on annual hot and cold degree-days.
• Performed projections with and without assumed human adaptation.

Main Results:

• ASMRs are projected to increase under RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5.
• Heat-related mortality increases are expected to exceed cold-related decreases.
• Under RCP8.5, net ASMR increases range from 0.12% (2030s) to 89.25% (2090s).
• Higher risks observed for individuals over 75 and for cardiovascular deaths.
• Adaptation measures may not fully offset adverse impacts, especially under RCP8.5.

Conclusions:

• Decreases in cold-related deaths will not compensate for heat-related increases in Hong Kong.
• Enhanced public adaptation strategies are essential for managing climate change health risks locally.