What will and won't happen when abortion is banned

Area of Science:

• Socio-legal studies
• Public health policy
• Gender and inequality studies

Background:

• Abortion opponents have historically sought to ban abortion based on assumptions about its effects.
• These assumptions include deterrence, moral messaging, and competent implementation/enforcement of bans.
• Previous analyses have not fully explored the empirical evidence behind these assumptions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide an evidence-based assessment of the assumptions underlying abortion bans.
• To analyze the effectiveness of abortion bans in deterring abortion and sending messages.
• To evaluate the practical challenges in implementing and enforcing abortion bans.

Main Methods:

• Empirical analysis of data from countries with varying abortion rates.
• Examination of U.S. laws and policies affecting families and childbirth.
• Review of literature on the expressive function of law and societal divisions.

Main Results:

• Restrictive abortion laws alone do not reduce aggregate abortion rates; individual deterrence disproportionately affects marginalized women.
• Abortion bans have limited capacity to send a consistent moral message in a divided society and are distinct from policies encouraging childbirth.
• Enforcement of abortion bans faces legitimacy struggles and administrative challenges, particularly with exceptions.

Conclusions:

• The assumptions underpinning abortion bans are not supported by empirical evidence.
• Abortion bans have unintended consequences, including exacerbating structural inequalities.
• The limitations and consequences of abortion bans should be considered by both supporters and opponents.