Histologic predictors of acute cardiac rejection in human endomyocardial biopsies: a multivariate analysis

To identify specific histologic abnormalities that could predict early cardiac rejection before the development of myocyte necrosis, 167 consecutive endomyocardial biopsy samples from 18 cardiac transplant recipients were retrospectively analyzed and 17 histologic variables were semiquantitatively graded from 0 to 3. Forty-five biopsy samples contained foci of myocyte necrosis and were labeled Rejectors. The two samples immediately preceding Rejector biopsies were labeled Predictors (n = 44). All remaining samples were labeled Others (n = 78). Endocardial and interstitial infiltrates, interstitial mononuclear cells, pyroninophilic mononuclear cells, polymorphonuclear leukocytes and other cells (eosinophils and plasma cells) were significantly increased in graded severity in Rejector biopsy samples as compared with Predictors or Others (p less than 0.001, ANOVA testing). These variables cannot distinguish Predictor biopsy specimens from Others. On the other hand, interstitial edema, perivascular karyorrhexis and perivascular infiltrate with intermyocyte extension are histologic abnormalities that can distinguish Predictor biopsy samples from Others (p less than 0.001, ANOVA testing). Multiple logistic regression analysis indicates that the relative risk of developing myocyte necrosis when a biopsy sample contains interstitial edema is 8.1. With perivascular infiltrate with intermyocyte extension in addition, the relative risk is 41.4. In summary, three histologic abnormalities have been identified that help predict the future development of myocyte necrosis within the next two endomyocardial biopsies. Biopsy specimens with these abnormalities probably represent early cardiac rejection before the development of myocyte necrosis.