Lethal Violence and Migration in Mexico: An Analysis of Internal and International Moves

We analyze the effect of homicide in Mexico on patterns and processes of internal and international migration. Linking municipal-level homicide rates from 1990 through 2018 with data from the Mexican Migration Project, we estimate a series of multinomial discrete time event history models to assess the effect that exposure to lethal violence has on the likelihood of migration within Mexico and to the United States without documents. Statistical estimates indicate that the homicide rate negatively predicts the likelihood of taking a first undocumented trip to the United States but positively predicts the likelihood of taking a first trip within Mexico. Among those undocumented migrants who have already taken a first U.S. trip, lethal violence also negatively predicts the likelihood of taking a second undocumented trip. Among returned internal migrants whose first trip was to a Mexican destination, the odds of taking a first U.S. trip were also negatively predicted by the municipal homicide rate. We conclude that rising violence in Mexico is not a significant driver of undocumented migration to the United States. Instead it contributes to the decline in undocumented out-migration observed since 2007, in combination with the rising age of those at risk of migration and the growing access of Mexicans to legal entry visas.