Longitudinal trajectories of prescription opioid misuse in adolescents

Adolescent misuse of prescription opioids is hazardous. This study aimed to generate data on prescription opioid misuse trajectories across adolescence and identify risk factors and mechanisms for more dangerous use trajectories.

Using a prospective longitudinal cohort repeated measures design, baseline (Fall 2013) and seven semiannual assessments were administered through Spring 2017 in 10 public high schools in Los Angeles, CA. Frequency of past 30-day prescription opioid misuse was captured. Trajectory groups were identified using growth mixture modeling and multinomial logistic regression identified associations between baseline risk factors with membership in each trajectory group.

Overall, 3395 students were evaluated (53.4% female, Mean [SD] age at baseline=14.58[0.40]; range=12.83-16.29). Four discrete misuse trajectories were identified among 1062 students: (1) Minimal/Experimental (infrequent time-limited use; range of estimated mean number of days using prescription opioid across waves=0.0-0.6 days]; N = 705[20.8%]); (2) Low Deescalating (range=2.0-0.7 days; N = 189[5.6%]); (3) Moderate Escalating (range=0.7-3.6 days; N = 108[3.2%]); and (4) Frequent Persistent (range=4.7-9.4 days; N = 60[1.8%]). Students reporting tobacco, cannabis, alcohol use, or impulsivity in 9th grade were more likely to demonstrate membership in the Moderate Escalating trajectory class when compared to 2333 (68.7%) students reporting sustained abstinence. Female sex, peer opioid misuse, alcohol use, other substance use, impulsivity, or delinquent behavior reported in 9th grade was associated with membership in the Frequent Persistent trajectory class.

Prescription opioid misuse in adolescence appears to follow 4 discrete trajectories, including the potentially problematic Moderate Escalating and Frequent Persistent trajectories. Female sex, peer influences, substance use, and intrapersonal risk factors were associated with membership in these classes.