Quantifying the effects of land use change and aggregate stormwater management practices on fecal coliform dynamics...

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) due to land development can lead to an increase in diffuse microbial pollutions and, consequently, degradation of the receiving aquatic ecosystem. However, the mechanisms underlying these phenomena are rarely considered in hydrological models. Therefore, in this study, fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and total suspended solids (TSS) in a temperate catchment were simulated using a well-established water quality model (Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model) to systematically quantify the factors influencing their dynamics and the effects of stormwater management. Additionally, high-resolution data (e.g., water quality variables and LULC changes) were used to calibrate the model, which accurately reproduced the physical and biological features of the catchment. The results showed that increases in bare land areas and impervious cover in the catchment exceeded the Korean (as well as the USEPA-based) standard recreational water quality criteria for fecal contamination and TSS. Dissolved organic compounds (only during storm events), TSS, and total nitrogen (except during the pre-development phase) were the strongest predictors in shaping FIB dynamics. The multiple control of stormwater management reduced the FIB and TSS concentrations by approximately 65% in the catchment. The results of this study not only provide conclusions on the drivers of FIB and TSS dynamics and their quantitative contribution but also help in designing a methodology for empirical and ecological predictions of diffuse microbial and TSS pollution in a catchment with ongoing land development.