Clinical prediction model of pathological response following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer

Patients with pathologic complete response (pCR) achievement can consider local excision or "watch and wait" strategy instead of a radical surgery. This study analyzed the predictive factors of pCR in rectal cancer patients who underwent radical operation after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). This study also analyzed the recurrence patterns in patients who achieved pCR and the oncologic outcomes and prognostic factors by ypStage. Between 2000 and 2013, 1,089 consecutive rectal cancer patients who underwent radical resection after nCRT were analyzed. These patients were classified into two groups according to pCR. The clinicopathologic and oncologic outcomes were analyzed and compared between the two groups. Multivariate analysis was conducted on factors related to pCR. The proportion of patients achieving pCR was 18.2% (n = 198). The pCR group demonstrated earlier clinical T and N stages, smaller tumor size, better differentiation, and a lower percentage of circumferential resection margin (CRM) involvement than did the non-pCR group. The prognostic factors associated with poorer disease-free survival were high preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen levels, non-pCR, poor histology, lymphatic/perineural invasion, and involvement of CRM. Multivariate analysis revealed that clinical node negativity, tumor size < 4 cm, and well differentiation were significant independent clinical predictors for achieving pCR. Patients with pCR displayed better long-term outcomes than those with non-pCR. The pCR-prediction model, based on predictive factors, is potentially useful for prognosis and for prescribing a treatment strategy in patients with advanced rectal cancer who need nCRT.