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Modeling of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome
Juan Pablo Gutiérrez Jara1, María Teresa Muñoz Quezada2
1Centro de Investigación de Estudios Avanzados del Maule (CIEAM), Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca, Chile. Address: Avenida San Miguel 3605, Talca, Chile. Email: jpgutierrezjara@gmail.com. ORCID: 0000-0001-9723-4978.
Introduction:
Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome is an infection caused by rodents of the Bunyanvirales family towards humans. This disease in Chile is considered endemic, which has a high fatality rate. At present, some studies show the contagion between people of the Andes virus, whose locality is concentrated in Argentina and Chile.
Objectives:
Analyze the possibility of hantavirus transmission between humans using an SEIR-type mathematical model.
Methods:
An SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered) mathematical model to express the dynamics of hantavirus disease is proposed, including the possibility of human-to-human transmission and the perception of risk.
Results:
The peak of human-to-human contagion decreases by about 25% after increasing peoples perception of risk by reducing the rate of resistance to changeand increasing the speed of peoples reaction.
Conclusions:
It is urgent to review risk communication strategies and prevention measures in the face of this possibility of massive human-tohuman infections, in addition to strengthening research and planning the development of a vaccine to protect populations exposed to this disease with a high fatality rate.
