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Balancing timeliness of reporting with increasing testing probability for epidemic data.
Alexander J Pritchard1, Matthew J Silk1,2, Simon Carrignon3,4
1NIMBioS, National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|May 5, 2022
Summary
Timely disease reporting and high testing probability enhance public adherence to protective behaviors by increasing individual concern. The optimal strategy depends on existing information levels and testing rates for effective indirect disease mitigation.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Network Science
- Public Health
Background:
- Coordinated reporting of epidemiological data is crucial but often delayed.
- Delays in reporting hinder direct interventions, necessitating indirect mitigation strategies.
- Public concern can drive adherence to protective behaviors, offering an indirect mitigation pathway.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the impact of reporting delays and testing probability on adherence to protective behaviors.
- To investigate how individual concern, informed by case reporting, mediates adherence.
- To explore the interplay between information timeliness, testing accuracy, and indirect disease mitigation.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a coupled-dynamic multiplex network model with communication and disease layers.
- Simulated individual concern influenced by disease reporting (population/community level) and social network information.
- Analyzed the effects of varying reporting delay and testing probability on protective behavior adherence.
Main Results:
- Individual concern, driven by reported cases and social contacts, mediated adherence to protective behaviors.
- The benefit of timely reporting versus high testing probability was contingent on existing information levels.
- Increasing testing probability was more valuable with low testing rates; maximizing timeliness was crucial with high testing rates.
Conclusions:
- Effective indirect disease mitigation relies on the interaction between testing accuracy and reporting timeliness.
- Public concern, informed by accessible and timely epidemiological data, is a key factor in adherence to protective measures.
- Network models provide insights into optimizing public health strategies within complex social systems.
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