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Overprecision is a property of thinking systems.

Don A Moore1

  • 1Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley.

Psychological Review
|May 5, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Overprecision, or excessive judgment certainty, stems from ignoring potential errors. This cognitive bias affects both humans and artificial intelligence, highlighting the importance of considering all possible mistakes.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Artificial Intelligence Ethics
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Overprecision is defined as excessive certainty in judgment accuracy.
  • Existing theories do not fully explain the phenomenon's prevalence.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel theory explaining the cognitive mechanisms behind overprecision.
  • To account for the influence of question format on reported overprecision.
  • To explain the occurrence of overprecision in both humans and AI agents.

Main Methods:

  • Theoretical analysis of judgment formation.
  • Examination of cognitive biases in decision-making.
  • Comparative analysis of human and artificial intelligence (AI) judgment.

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Main Results:

  • Overprecision arises from neglecting potential errors in judgment.
  • Difficulty in considering all possible ways to be wrong contributes to overprecision.
  • The proposed theory explains the impact of question framing on overprecision levels.

Conclusions:

  • The neglect of potential errors is a key driver of overprecision.
  • This theory provides a unified explanation for overprecision across human and artificial intelligence.
  • Understanding overprecision is crucial for improving judgment accuracy in various domains.