Catastrophic PM_2.5 emissions from Siberian forest fires: Impacting factors analysis

With increased forest fires due to climate change, PM_2.5 emissions also intensified. Record PM_2.5 emissions according to Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service in Russia amounted to 8 megatons (Mt) in 2021, which is 78% higher than the average level of 2004-2021 (4.5 Mt). Seven federal subjects (the constituent entities) with vast forest areas without fire protection produced 86% of emissions (6.8 Mt) in 2021, the major losses (6.1 Mt) in Yakutia (Sakha Republic). The ambient temperature in Eastern Siberia is increasing, especially in months of winter and spring seasons (up to +3.6 °C) in 1990-2020 compared to 1901-2020 (CEDA Archive); climate change has affected meteorological conditions leading to increased forest fires. The results of the SARIMAX model study for PM_2.5 emissions considering meteorological factors using ERA5 and burnt forest area using MODIS (MCD64A1), establishing a significant dependence of PM_2.5 emissions on the lack of precipitation and the associated parameters of complete and potential evaporation. This influence long before the fire season (up to 9 months), as it affects the snow cover and the dryness of the fuel by the beginning of forest fires. In turn, high PM_2.5 emission values are accompanied by a drop in 2 m air temperature and surface solar radiation downwards due to the aerosol saturation with suspended particles. The average COR for seven federal subjects was 0.79, with the highest forecast result in Yakutia (0.95), indicating the maximum propensity for record emissions due to weather conditions. In combination with forest management without fire protection, meteorological parameters have caused an increase in PM_2.5 emissions in recent years in Siberia. The forest needs other ways to manage under the pressures of climate change to reduce environmental pollution associated with PM_2.5 emissions from vast Siberian fires.