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Estimating global economic well-being with unlit settlements.

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Satellite nighttime lights reveal that 19% of global settlements lack detectable artificial radiance, particularly in Africa. This finding helps map wealth in developing nations, showing unlit areas are often overlooked.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Geospatial Analysis
  • Socioeconomic Studies

Background:

  • Nighttime lights from satellites correlate with economic prosperity globally.
  • Unlit areas in developing countries often signify limited development and are frequently disregarded in analyses.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the extent of human settlements lacking detectable nighttime radiance.
  • To investigate the geographic distribution of these unlit settlements.
  • To assess the utility of unlit settlement data for predicting socioeconomic indicators.

Main Methods:

  • Integration of satellite nighttime lights data with the World Settlement Footprint dataset for 2015.
  • Analysis of the percentage of unlit settlement footprints across different continents and regions.
  • Development and validation of a predictive model for wealth class based on unlit settlement percentages.

Main Results:

  • 19% of the global settlement footprint in 2015 had no detectable artificial nighttime radiance.
  • Unlit settlements are predominantly found in Africa (39% of its footprint), the Middle East, and Asia, with rural areas showing higher percentages (65%).
  • A predictive model using unlit settlement data achieved 87% accuracy in mapping wealth class for ~2,400,000 households across 49 countries.

Conclusions:

  • A significant portion of human settlements globally, especially in Africa, remains unlit, indicating development disparities.
  • The absence of nighttime radiance in settlements is a strong indicator of lower socioeconomic status.
  • This research provides a novel method for mapping and understanding wealth distribution in data-scarce regions.