A novel reliability-based regression model to analyze and forecast the severity of COVID-19 patients

Coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) has become a serious threat to human society all around the world. Due to the rapid rate of disease outbreaks and the severe shortages of medical resources, predicting COVID-19 disease severity continues to be a challenge for healthcare systems. Accurate prediction of severe patients plays a vital role in determining treatment priorities, effective management of medical facilities, and reducing the number of deaths. Various methods have been used in the literature to predict the severity prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Despite the different appearance of the methods, they all aim to achieve generalizable results by increasing the accuracy and reducing the errors of predictions. In other words, accuracy is considered the only effective factor in the generalizability of models. In addition to accuracy, reliability and consistency of results are other critical factors that must be considered to yield generalizable medical predictions. Since the role of reliability in medical decisions is significant, upgrading reliable medical data-driven models requires more attention.

This paper presents a new modeling technique to specify and maximize the reliability of results in predicting the severity prognosis of COVID-19 patients. We use the well-known classic regression as the basic model to implement our proposed procedure on it. To assess the performance of the proposed model, it has been applied to predict the severity prognosis of COVID-19 by using a dataset including clinical information of 46 COVID-19 patients. The dataset consists of two types of patients' outcomes including mild (discharge) and severe (ICU or death). To measure the efficiency of the proposed model, we compare the accuracy of the proposed model to the classic regression model.

The proposed reliability-based regression model, by achieving 98.6% sensitivity, 88.2% specificity, and 93.10% accuracy, has better performance than classic accuracy-based regression model with 95.7% sensitivity, 85.5% specificity, and 90.3% accuracy. Also, graphical analysis of ROC curve showed AUC 0.93 (95% CI 0.88-0.98) and AUC 0.90 (95% CI 0.85-0.96) for classic regression models, respectively.

Maximizing reliability in the medical forecasting models can lead to more generalizable and accurate results. The competitive results indicate that the proposed reliability-based regression model has higher performance in predicting the deterioration of COVID-19 patients compared to the classic accuracy-based regression model. The proposed framework can be used as a suitable alternative for the traditional regression method to improve the decision-making and triage processes of COVID-19 patients.