Asymptomatic Transmissibility Calls for Implementing a Zero-COVID Strategy to End the Current Global Crisis

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Infectious Diseases
• Public Health

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic presents significant global challenges.
• A zero-COVID strategy is proposed, but biological evidence is limited.
• Comparative analysis of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 is needed.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct a comparative analysis of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19.
• To investigate the role of asymptomatic transmission in COVID-19 spread.
• To provide biological evidence supporting a zero-COVID policy.

Main Methods:

• Collected and analyzed data on SARS, MERS, and COVID-19.
• Performed comparative analysis and visualization of epidemiological data.
• Developed Python software to simulate COVID-19 spread dynamics, focusing on asymptomatic transmission.

Main Results:

• COVID-19 exhibits a lower fatality rate but a higher death toll compared to SARS and MERS.
• COVID-19 demonstrates a significantly higher asymptomatic rate and unique asymptomatic transmissibility.
• Simulations indicate asymptomatic spread could increase cumulative cases by over 100 times compared to symptomatic spread alone.

Conclusions:

• Asymptomatic transmissibility is a key driver of the widespread global transmission of COVID-19.
• The findings provide strong biological evidence supporting the implementation of a zero-COVID strategy.
• Understanding asymptomatic spread is crucial for controlling future COVID-19 outbreaks.